OBLIQUE OBSERVATIONS
By Atty. Gilberto Lauengco, J.D.
During the last few weeks, people all over the world were mesmerized by the news that an asteroid named 2024 YR4 had a slight probability of hitting the Earth in 2032. Initially, scientists from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Center for Near Earth Object Studies calculated that the 300 ft. wide asteroid had a 2.3 percent chance of hitting the Earth in December of 2032. In a few days, the estimated chance of impact became 3.1 percent. The Internet then exploded with hundreds of doomsayers predicting a great calamity. Today, the probability of impact has gone down to .001 percent or near zero.
The recent interest surrounding the asteroid 2024 has highlighted the need for people to understand numbers, facts, and sciences more. During the weeks where the probability of impact was going up, thousands of posts and videos about the asteroid were beginning to cause some anxiety to many people. Apparently, people focused on the phrase “probability of impact” without understanding the science. Then people became focused on the Torino Scale, which is a zero to ten index measure of the danger of an asteroid impact. Asteroid 2024 YR4 rated a three in the said Torino scale and the anxiety level for some became even higher. Some people seem to revel in wallowing in what some call apocalyptic anxiety. Some people on the other hand seem to enjoy causing such anxiety by harping on the alleged dangers.
A deeper understanding of probabilities would have put things in better perspective. First, even the initial probability of a hit was quite small. A probability expert explained to me that with those odds, the probability of dying from an asteroid is lower than being killed by a crab.
Second, with the earth mostly covered by water, the chances of hitting land were also quite small. Third, even if it hit land, the probability was high that it would hit an unpopulated area. Lastly, just looking at the size of the asteroid would have shown that it is at worst a city killer and not an extinction-level event asteroid strike.
The fact is that the anxiety one feels because of the fear of an asteroid hit has a higher chance of doing damage than the aforesaid asteroid itself. Anxiety in itself can lead to more serious illnesses that can do more harm.
There are many things happening around us that can cause anxiety. We can lessen our anxiety just by looking at the science and math. We can further lessen it by just being prepared. The so-called big earthquake for Metro Manila is a sure bet. We just don’t know when it will hit. If you truly want to be anxious. You can be anxious about that or you can prepare for these things. Of course, if you want to still be anxious about the asteroid, you can hold on to the fact that the chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting our moon are still within the realm of possibilities.
This is my oblique observation.
